New Scientistreports that scientists have recently discovered
that fads appear to follow one the laws of magnetism. Using
this law researchers might be able to predict changes in public
opinion using algorithms and computer models. As a few people turn
away from a trend others start to follow and a trend come come to
a rapid end.
To model the consequences of imitation, the researchers turned to the
physics of magnets. An applied magnetic field will coerce the spins
of atoms in a magnetic material to point in a certain direction. And
often an atom's spin direction pushes the spins of neighbouring
atoms to point in a similar direction. And even if an applied field
changes direction slowly, the spins sometimes flip all together and
quite abruptly.
The physicists modified the model such that the atoms represented
people and the direction of the spin indicated a person's behaviour,
and used it to predict shifts in public opinion.
In the case of cellphones, for example, it is clear that as more
people realised how useful they were, and as their price dropped,
more people would buy them. But how quickly the trend took off
depended on how strongly people influenced each other. The magnetic
model predicts that when people have a strong tendency to imitate
others, shifts in behaviour will be faster, and there may even be
discontinuous jumps, with many people adopting cellphones virtually
overnight.
