Study: Exceptionally Long Heat Waves Could Become Commonplace During Next 30 Years
A new study by Stanford University climate scientists indicates that exceptionally long heat waves could become commonplace in the United States in the next 30 years. The image above shows the increase in the number of extremely hot seasons per decade over the next three decades. The study follows a recent NASA report, which concluded that the previous decade, January 2000 to December 2009, was the warmest on record.
"Using a large suite of climate model experiments, we see a clear emergence of much more intense, hot conditions in the U.S. within the next three decades," said Noah Diffenbaugh, an assistant professor of environmental Earth system science at Stanford and the lead author of the study.
Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters (GRL), Diffenbaugh concluded that hot temperature extremes could become frequent events in the U.S. by 2039, posing serious risks to agriculture and human health. Diffenbaugh is also concerned that we could see heat waves in the U.S. as bad as the 2003 heat wave in Europe that killed 35,000 people.
"In the next 30 years, we could see an increase in heat waves like the one now occurring in the eastern United States or the kind that swept across Europe in 2003 that caused tens of thousands of fatalities," said Diffenbaugh. "Those kinds of severe heat events also put enormous stress on major crops like corn, soybean, cotton and wine grapes, causing a significant reduction in yields."
You can read more about the Stanford climate study here.
The heat and drought has been oppressive this year for humans but the risiing temperatures and lack of water is also very tough on wildlife. This news story from CBS explains how hard global warming will be on different types of creatures. Some may become more aggressive as they search for food and water. Local snake wranglers are getting more calls as rattlesnakes venture close to people's homes. Animals that live on the tops of mountains may go extinct as they have no where to go and ultimately perish in the abnormally high temperatures.
Rattlesnakes - everywhere. More than Bo Slyapich has seen in his 20-year career as a snake wrangler. The prolonged drought and extreme heat have combined to drive the thirsty and venomous creatures too close for comfort - back decks, play equipment - anywhere they can find shade.
What do they want?
"Food. Just like you go to the supermarket to go shopping, they come to our homes to go shopping," Slyapich says.
Not too far from the steps to homeowner Tom Mahan's family pool, there was a four-foot rattlesnake.
He's found them even sipping from his pool. Now he's taken protective measures.
"Half-inch grid galvanized fencing around the three-acre perimeter here, which keeps 99 percent of any kind of snakes out," Mahan said.
Deer and coyotes are coming down from the hills, too. A disoriented bear climbed up a utility pole in triple-digit heat.
"It is uncharted territory," said Paul Edelman of the Santa Monica Mountain Conservatory. "It is the equivalent of the stories you see on the big droughts in the African Serengetti plains where the animals drop three feet in front of the water hole."
This CBS video shows some of the snake wrangler removing rattle snakes from people's yard. It also shows some of the animals that are suffering.
Future Summers Look Extremely Hot For Eastern U.S. Cities
Temperatures for the eastern U.S. are expected to soar from global warming. By 2080 eastern U.S. cities will see average daily temperatures that are nearly 10 degrees above the norm. During dryer summers cities like Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta will see days in July and August where average daily temperatures reach between 100 and 110 degrees Fahrenheit according to a new NASA study.
A new study by NASA scientists suggests that greenhouse-gas warming may raise average summer temperatures in the eastern United States nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the 2080s.
"There is the potential for extremely hot summertime temperatures in the future, especially during summers with less-than-average frequent rainfall," said lead author Barry Lynn of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York.
The research found that eastern U.S. summer daily high temperatures that currently average in the low-to-mid-80s (degrees Fahrenheit) will most likely soar into the low-to-mid-90s during typical summers by the 2080s. In extreme seasons – when precipitation falls infrequently – July and August daily high temperatures could average between 100 and 110 degrees Fahrenheit in cities such as Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta.
To reach their conclusions, the researchers analyzed nearly 30 years of observational temperature and precipitation data and also used computer model simulations that considered soil, atmospheric, and oceanic conditions and projected changes in greenhouse gases. The simulations were produced using a widely-used weather prediction model coupled to a global model developed by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The global model, one of the models used in the recently issued climate report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was utilized in this study to identify future changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to the build up of greenhouse gases. This information was then fed into the weather prediction model to forecast summer-to-summer temperature variability in the eastern United States during the 2080s.
The weather model showed that extreme summertime surface temperatures developed when carbon dioxide emissions were assumed to continue to increase about two percent a year, the "business as usual" scenario. These findings are too recent to be included in the latest IPCC report.
Daily averages between 100 and 100 degrees? Expect some serious misery and high air conditioning bills if this very long term forecast verifies.
Severe California Heatwave Kills People, Livestock and Crops
The heat wave that struck California last week was unprecedented in California's history. Here are some highlights that show the serious impact the severe heat wave had on humans, animals and crops in the region.
Epochal event: "It has been hotter for longer than ever before, and the weather patterns that caused the scorching temperatures were positively freakish. The region's last significant hot spell -- in 1972 -- lasted two days, and never in the past has the Bay Area suffered through as many consecutive days of temperatures above 110."
163 humans killed and counting: "In California, the sweltering heat that punished the state for two weeks subsided, but the number of confirmed or suspected heat-related deaths climbed to 163 as county coroners worked through a backlog of cases."
25,000+ cattle killed: "New reports say thta Central California between Bakersfield and Redding is home to approximately 2.5 million cattlem of which 25,000 died because of the triple-digit temperatures since July 14."
Crops damaged: "Agriculture experts say peach, plum, nectarine and walnut crops have been destroyed this year. California farm losses could drive up national food prices in coming months."
Tomatoes split open by the heat. "Tomatoes being grown for salsa, ketchup and pasta sauces were found split in the fields, which will make them hard to sell."
Hundreds of thousands of chickens and turkeys killed. "About 700,000 chickens and 160,000 turkeys have been killed in the valley"
Bats fell dead onto California streets. "People aren't the only ones feeling a West Coast heat wave -- bats are literally falling off their perches and onto the streets in California."
Leading websites like MySpace.com forced offline by power outages.
This is really terrifying. Should global warming continue to make longer-lasting and more intense heat waves as is expected it could seriously impair our food supply by both killing livestock and damaging crops. The heat wave is expected to travel east this week.
Experts believe this is just a sign of things to come thanks to global warming. New data has also found that an average of 900 people per year have been killed in the U.S. because of heat between 1999 and 2003.
George Luber, an epidemiologist who studies heat wave deaths for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says the current situation is on track to be "the most active one that I can recall" in terms of heat deaths.
A new analysis by Luber this week shows that between 1999 and 2003, the United States averaged nearly 900 heat-related deaths each year. This year, with 132 reported in central California alone, could be worse, he said.
It does look like heat-related deaths will be up this year. It is only August 1st and a significant heat wave is now threatening the Midwest and the East Coast. Chicago has already reported new deaths from this heat wave. The scary thought is what will the death tolls from heat waves for both humans and livestock be like in ten or twenty years? Stay safe out there in these extreme temperatures.
Some interesting temperature fluctuations occured earlier this month in Nebraska. The rapid temperature increases are known as heat bursts. The incidents are listed on a NOAA Page.
Heat bursts are caused by decaying thunderstorms and only develop in an extremely unique environment. The rare setup for a heat burst is dry air directly beneath a weakening elevated thunderstorm. When a thunderstorm is weakening air within the thunderstorm begins to sink. If this sinking air is very dry and high enough it will begin to accelerate toward the ground since it is more dense. Any remaining precipitation will fall through this dry air and quickly evaporate. As the air continues downward, it warms rapidly due to compression.
A heat burst is noted by a rapid increase in temperature, a drop in the dew point temperature and an increase in winds. Here are some readings that occurred this morning.
The article lists several heat bursts that occured that evening. The greatest temperature change was at Kearney, Nebraksa where readings went from 70 degrees to 93 degrees between 4 and 5 am. Wow! A 23 degree rise in temperature in an hour.
SciGuy has been blogging lately here and here about using green roofs to help reduce the heat generated by massive urban areas like Houston, Texas. Houston, Texas had incredible flooding in 2001 from Hurricane Allison. The heavy rains may have been enhanced by the urban heat island affect. SciGuy points to this webpage on Inhabitants.com that explains the benefits a green roof plan could have for a city.
Providing amenity space for building users — replacing a yard or patio
Reducing heating (by adding mass and thermal resistance value) and cooling (by evaporative cooling) loads on a building
Reducing the urban heat island effect
Houston is certainly not the only city that could use a project like this. Not only would it reduce the urban heat island problems but it could help filter our pollution. A similar problem is being promoted in New York called Greening Gotham. The organization says Senator Hillary Clinton has signed on as a supporter.
Bees Defend Hive From Hornest With Heatballing Defense
If you have seen the 30 hornets vs. 30,000 bees video then you know the devastation a few hornets can cause a hive of bees. Fortunately, there a few honeybee species that defend themselves with a technique called heatballling where lots of bees surround a hornet raising the internal temperature and killing the wasp with their body heat. A Sciencenews.org article explains how the special honeybee defense works.
However, a few honeybee species can defend themselves by surrounding an invader. Researchers used to think that the few-dozen bees were trying to sting the wasp, says Seeley. Thermal cameras, however, revealed the balls' soaring heat.
To see what margin of safety the bees have, Tan and his research colleagues presented tethered wasps to six colonies each of native Asian bees and European bees. At each nest, worker bees engulfed the wasp immediately. Within 5 minutes, the center of a typical bee ball had reached 45°C.
To check the bees' and wasps' tolerance for heat, researchers then caged each of the species in incubators and systematically cranked up the temperature. The wasps died at 45.7°C, but the Asian honeybees survived heat to 50.7°C and the European bees made it to 51.8°C.
The native Asian bees, ancient adversaries of the wasps, mobilized half again as many defenders into a heat ball as the European bees did, the researchers report. Furthermore, Asian bees not mobbing the wasp were more likely to take shelter during an attack than bystander European bees were.
An intense heat wave has killed 18 people so far in Phoenix, Arizona. On July 18, 2005 the city hit a record high minimum temperature of 91 degrees. Highs have been over 110 degrees multiple times this July. The city has opened shelters to help some of the city's 10,000 to 20,000 homeless people find cool shelter. Tents of also been set up in the downtown area. MSNBC.com has a report on the deadly heat wave.
"I don't know why I'm not burnt to pieces," said Chris Cruse, 48, after taking refuge in a shelter.
Four more bodies were found Wednesday. Fourteen of the victims were thought to be homeless. Authorities did not know if a man found by the side of a road Sunday had a permanent residence.
The other three victims were elderly women, including one whose home cooling system was not on, police said.
"Most of us just run from air-conditioned box to air-conditioned box, so it's hard to imagine how omnipresent the heat really is for the homeless here," said Phoenix police Sgt. Randy Force.
The Associated Press reports that a heat wave is causing alarm in Southern Europe. Temperatures in Southern Spain have been hitting 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) for weeks now according to the AP report. Europeans are hoping this heat wave will not be as bad as the one in 2003 that killed over 40,000 people. 20,000 people in Italy alone were killed by the heat wave primarily due to a lack of air conditioning.
With Spain well used to high summer temperatures, many residential buildings are equipped with air conditioning which helped limit the 2003 official death toll to 101, whereas in neighbouring France, at least 14,847 people died.
French Health Minister Xavier Bertrand has therefore promised the installation of a nationwide emergency system, including a requirement that all establishments for the elderly should have at least one air-conditioned room.
Italy was also on high alert, with the health risks linked to above-normal temperatures highlighted by the release of an official report saying that almost 20,000 Italians had died in the 2003 heat wave -- more than double the previous estimate.
The Europe-wide toll for the extraordinary heat wave of 2003 had previously been estimated at around 30,000 but the Italian figure would boost it to 40,000.
Update: The BBC provides these pictures about the drought in Southern Europe.
SciGuy has been blogging lately 
